By Mthuli Ncube, Eliphas Ndou, Nombulelo Gumata
This e-book deals new quantitative insights into how South African financial system reacts to exterior fiscal shocks. The research comprises targeting fiscal progress and monetary spill over, results of capital inflows, contrasting the inventory marketplace fee returns and volatility on financial development and settling on the results of monetary stress.
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Additional resources for Global Growth and Financial Spillovers and the South African Macro-economy
The examinations of channels through which these growth shocks are transmitted confirms that the trade and financial channels are important. However, we find that growth response tends to be higher in the presence of the trade channels with the EU. The financial channel is more potent, in particular through bond yields, with respect to growth shocks from the United States and Canada. The business confidence channel also plays a significant role in amplifying external positive growth shocks into South Africa.
So how closely related are the GDP growth rates within BRIC? 1 (a)–(b). Apart from a severe GDP growth decline in Russia in 2009, it is evident that the South African GDP growth rate between 2001Q1 and 2011Q4 was lower in comparison to that of other BRIC countries. 1 India-South Africa Russia-South Africa GDP growth rates and bilateral correlations Source: IMF IFS. 1 (b). The correlation is stronger between Russian and South African growth. If predictions of economic theory hold over time, then an increase in BRIC national incomes should raise South African exports.
What do we conclude from using the Cholesky decomposition approach? Different effects are obtained when using the Cholseky decomposition approach. 9, for instance Germany and France do not stimulate South African growth significantly. The results show that positive GDP growth shocks to the United States, Japan and Russia raise South African GDP growth significantly. Thus, the growth impulse from the United States, Japan and Russia are robust to the two methods used to assess the prevalence of growth spillovers.